Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
