It was eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or the reason of the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. After the England international curled home his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six matches, are somehow a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
This is a particularly tough query to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, even as the wins have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a club who have put together a ten-match winning streak, they look curiously susceptible – but right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United had more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the force he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
